MyDD :: Obama up 9% in WI (SurveyUSA)

Obama up 9% in WI (SurveyUSA)

by minnesotaryan, Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 12:33:17 PM EST

Hooray, but perhaps more importantly, check out the cross tabs. I think these results really call into question yesterday's results showing Obama up only 1% Minnesota.

Wisconsin: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=42f97d63-cc9e-473b-86bc-11f7fc 09d3ae

Minnesota (yesterday):
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=b9f93545-a19e-4e8d-909c-59b605 0c0d5e

Pay close attention to the preference among voters between the ages of 18 and 34; they go for Obama by 20%. Compare this to the Minnesota poll released yesterday that had the same age group in Minnesota split between the two candidates 48%-48%.

Now obviously we can't say for certain which poll is more correct, but given the numbers out of Wisconsin (and the state's proximity to Minnesota geographically and culturally) and the prevailing preference nationally for Obama among younger voters, I'd second StudentGuy's assessment of yesterday's Minnesota poll as being one of the more blatant outliers.

Tags: obama (all tags)

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Accurate now, but (none / 0)

the NRA has not yet gone to work. Their efforts will do more for McCain here than anything he or the Republican party can do.

Obama will still carry WI, but not by this much.

Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by benmasel on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 12:42:58 PM EST

Re: Accurate now, but (none / 0)

Oh, I love it when the clairvoyants post!!!

Since we have so many of them on this site, I already know that Obama will lose in November, so all polling is a waste of money now.

by Deadalus on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 12:47:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Accurate now, but (none / 0)

Ben knows WI better than most. If you don't think there's any point in making predictions why are you reading threads about polling?

John McCain

by Mandoliniment on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 12:54:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The NRA is strong in WI (none / 0)

There's every reason to think that Obama's numbers will go down a little in Wisconsin.

Most of us from the area are pretty certain that he's going to win, but 9% might be a little much.

If the NRA starts pushing their agenda in September or so and we can keep the numbers high, then we'll be in good shape.

Don't count them out, though.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 01:06:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I ran Statewide in WI just 2 years ago (2.00 / 1)

The sample of voters I talked to may not have been as randomly selected as a conventional poll, but was perhaps 20 times larger. You want prognastications for each of our 72 Counties?

Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by benmasel on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 02:23:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Accurate now, but (none / 0)

Yeah, he won't win by 9 (but he will win). Ben's assessment is spot on.

by rfahey22 on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 02:38:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama up 9% in WI (SurveyUSA) (none / 0)

The most notable part of the poll is how POORLY all the VP choices named did.

EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS EDWARDS

The ONLY VP candidate that is demonstrated to work REALLY well right now.

If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.

by vcalzone on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 12:58:09 PM EST

This looks about right. (none / 0)

The numbers are a lot more reasonable in the cross-tabs in this poll than Minnesota's.

The higher number of young voters is consistant because of Wisconsin's incredibly strong public university system, but I do think that younger voters and liberals were under-represented in the Minnesota poll.

In the end, despite the Vikings vs. Packers divide, Wisconsin and Minnesota will not end up significantly differently in terms of the November election.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 01:10:24 PM EST

With schools out of session (none / 0)

any polling of the youngest demographic is going to be soft. Half of next November's freshmen aren't even in the State yet, and they missed anyone gone to Bonoroo.

Democratic Candidate, US Senate, Wisconsin 2012

by benmasel on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 02:27:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good point (none / 0)

Hadn't thought of that.

In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.

by Dracomicron on Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 02:28:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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